FORECASTSWiseHarbor Integrated Forecasts in Operator Services, Network Equipment and Devices to 2025
This WiseHarbor publication forecasts the long-term outlook in mobile operator services, network equipment and devices to 2025. Particular consideration is given to the mobile broadband technologies, including LTE, which will be most prevalent in the coming years as mobile devices become the primary or only means of Internet access for half the world's population by 2020. Detailed figures are provided for the developed regions of North America, Western Europe and Japan with totals for all other regions.
Wiseharbor's integrated forecasts surpass other published forecasts because they:
WiseHarbor's new forecasts are ideal for long-term and strategic decisions on mobile technology transitions, spectrum auctions, patent purchases and company acquisitions.
Previous adoption cycles provide significant guidance on likely future developments. Although the sizes of mobile technology markets have expanded enormously with successive generations of network technology: for example, with 1 million, 10 million and 100 million device sales milestones being reached more rapidly with later technology generations, the time from launch to peak sales volumes has been remarkably consistent for the leading technologies. Peak sales of network equipment tend to lead device sales by a couple of years. Peak subscriber figures are reached even later.
Mobile Technology Adoption Lifecycles – From Launch to Peak Demand
Figures for 2009 and 2010 are WiseHarbor estimates based on historic sales in units, revenues and average selling prices derived from a variety of industry sources. Forecasts are based on these figures, historic market diffusion patterns, technology substitution factors, expected spectrum availability, population growth rates, economic principles such as elasticity of demand to pricing, expected GDP growth, inflation and other factors. WiseHarbor considers interdependencies between network technology deployments by operators, devices sales and consumer usage in its forecast modeling. Forecasts are formulated with the judgment of Keith Mallinson, Founder of WiseHarbor, with 25 years global experience as an industry analyst and market forecaster in wireless and mobile communications.
Mobile networks and devices are increasingly multimode. For example, whereas forecasts show the GSM Family of technologies (i.e., including GPRS and EDGE) will decline in coming years, a large proportion of devices will include GSM with other technologies for many years. WiseHarbor follows the convention of defining the technology of a device by the most advanced technology included.
WiseHarbor reaffirms forecast findings published one year ago that LTE will be as successful as the leading cellular technologies that preceded it with LTE-TDD precipitating the demise of WiMAX which will peak by 2015. Mobile broadband will do for Internet connections—averaging several gigabytes usage per month by 2020—what 2G has achieved over the last 15 years in providing voice and text communication to more than half the world's population with 5 billion connections including those with multiple subscriptions. Forecast findings also include:
Wiseharbor Research Press Release and Reporting
Press reporting and analysis includes articles by RCR Wireless, FierceBroadband Wireless, TechNews.AM, TMCnet.com, and Telecompaper. Findings are also the subject of Keith Mallinson’s monthly columns in FierceWireless entitled Long-term forecasting for mobile broadband with HSPA and LTE and Why is LTE still delayed in most of Europe?.
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